Risk Radar: The Geopolitical Pressures Shaping the Wire and Cable Supply Chain

As IWMA Insider gets distributed, the global risk radar is looking rather crowded. The Strait of Hormuz may be taking the headlines, but shipping routes, tariffs, steel measures, metals duties and carbon regulation are all making a strong case for attention. For IWMA members, these are not just political talking points. They can influence raw material availability, freight costs, customer pricing, project lead times, export competitiveness and long-term investment decisions.

In a sector built around global supply chains, events that appear distant can quickly become commercial realities.

 

Shipping routes remain vulnerable

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate concern because of its direct connection to Gulf exports, energy flows, petrochemicals and polymer supply. A US-Iran framework agreement has raised hopes that the Strait can reopen more fully, but global shipping operators remain cautious. Maersk has welcomed the agreement but, at the time of writing, has not changed its Middle East operations, saying details remain limited.

The caution is understandable. Reuters reports that only limited traffic has resumed, with safety, mine clearance and insurance normalisation still key concerns. Maritime experts have warned that clearing naval mines could take weeks, while an estimated 155 to 215 tankers remain stuck in the Gulf. Hormuz has previously handled around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, so any disruption has implications well beyond the region.

However, Hormuz sits within a wider pattern of maritime risk. The Red Sea and Suez Canal route has also remained under pressure. The Suez Canal has historically handled around 12% to 15% of global trade and around 30% of global container traffic, making disruption there highly significant for Asia-Europe and wider global freight flows.

Although some shipping services have been testing or gradually returning to Suez routes, operators have continued to respond cautiously to instability in the region. Any renewed escalation can quickly affect vessel routing, transit times and freight costs, particularly for cargo moving between Asia, Europe and the US.

For wire and cable businesses, this matters because freight disruption is rarely isolated. Longer routes can absorb vessel capacity, delay containers, increase insurance costs and create uncertainty around delivery schedules. Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope can add significant time to journeys, with some estimates putting the additional transit time at up to two weeks.

Even where a company is not directly shipping through the affected region, it may still feel the effect through higher freight costs, slower lead times or reduced schedule reliability. The practical lesson is that maritime chokepoints are no longer background geography. Hormuz, Suez, the Red Sea and other critical routes are now part of procurement, logistics and customer planning.

On the previous page, we take a closer look at the conflict in the Gulf and the disruption caused through the Strait of Hormuz, exploring what it could mean for cable exports, polymer supply, freight, insurance and project lead times.

 

Tariffs are becoming a strategic risk

Trade policy is another area where uncertainty remains high. The EU and US appear to be working towards a more stable trade position, but the current environment remains fragile. Tariff reductions and negotiated frameworks may offer some reassurance, but businesses are still operating against a backdrop of changing deadlines, political pressure and the possibility of retaliatory measures.

For the wire and cable industry, tariff uncertainty can be particularly difficult because materials, machinery, components and finished products often cross borders multiple times. A change in tariff treatment does not simply affect one transaction. It can alter sourcing decisions, customer pricing, contract margins and the competitiveness of one region against another.

Steel, aluminium and copper are especially sensitive areas for the sector. The US continues to apply a broad 15% tariff on many EU goods, while steel and aluminium tariffs have remained a major point of contention. European steel exports to the US have reportedly fallen by around 34% since Washington increased tariffs to 50%, showing how quickly trade measures can affect volumes and market access.

Even where a tariff is not applied directly to a specific cable product, duties on metals, derivatives or related goods can influence the wider cost base. Manufacturers may face higher input costs, customers may delay projects, and exporters may find themselves competing in markets where pricing has shifted suddenly.

The result is a more cautious commercial environment. Businesses may need to think more carefully about contract terms, quote validity, origin rules, alternative sourcing and the ability to pass on unexpected cost increases.

 

Steel measures are under the spotlight

Steel policy is a particularly important issue for UK and European members. From 1 July 2026, the UK is introducing new steel trade measures that will limit tariff-free steel imports and apply higher duties above quota levels.

Under the new UK measure, overall tariff-free quota volumes will be reduced by 60% compared with the current steel safeguard arrangements. Imports above those quota levels will face a 50% tariff. The measure applies to imports of steel products that can also be made in the UK, with Make UK noting that the system will operate across defined steel product categories.

The intention is to support domestic steel production, but downstream manufacturers have raised concerns about the possible impact on cost and availability. This is especially relevant where businesses rely on steel products that are not readily available domestically, or where supply chains are already under pressure.

For the wire and cable sector, steel is relevant in several ways. It can affect steel wire rod, steel wire, armouring, reinforcement, machinery supply chains and infrastructure-related products. If steel availability tightens or costs rise, the impact may move through the supply chain into pricing, margins, lead times and customer competitiveness.

The challenge for policymakers is balance. Measures that support steel production may also create pressure for downstream manufacturers if they reduce flexibility or increase costs. For IWMA members, this will be an area to monitor closely, particularly during the first months of implementation.

Over the following page, we look more closely at the UK steel tariff situation, including what has changed, why it matters, and what the potential consequences could be for downstream manufacturers in the wire and cable sector.

 

Carbon rules are moving downstream

Alongside tariffs and trade measures, carbon regulation is becoming an increasingly important part of international competitiveness.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, known as CBAM, is designed to place a carbon cost on certain high-emission imports entering the EU. The system initially focuses on sectors such as steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers, but policymakers are already looking at ways to close loopholes and extend coverage further downstream.

This matters because wire and cable businesses sit within complex supply chains that use metals, polymers, machinery and components from multiple regions. If carbon costs expand to more finished or semi-finished products, importers may face greater reporting requirements, documentation demands and potential cost exposure.

The Council of the European Union agreed its position on strengthening CBAM on 12 June 2026, with the new framework intended to extend the mechanism’s scope to new products and close loopholes that may be used to circumvent the system. Separately, recent tax and trade analysis suggests that the proposed expansion from 1 January 2028 could cover around 180 steel- and aluminium-intensive downstream products.

Even where a company is not directly covered today, customers may begin asking more questions about embedded carbon, supplier origin, material traceability and emissions data. Over time, carbon reporting may become not just a compliance issue, but a commercial expectation.

For members supplying into Europe, CBAM and related carbon policies should be viewed as a medium-term strategic issue. The companies that can understand and evidence their material flows, emissions data and supplier base will be better placed as regulation develops.

 

What this means for IWMA members

The common thread across all these issues is uncertainty. Shipping disruption, tariffs, steel measures and carbon rules may seem like separate subjects, but they all affect the same commercial questions: where materials come from, how reliably goods can move, what they cost, and how confidently businesses can price and deliver.

For IWMA members, the priority is not to predict every political development. It is to build enough visibility and flexibility into the business to respond when conditions change.

That may mean reviewing freight routes, understanding exposure to metals tariffs, checking contract terms, monitoring steel availability, improving supplier communication, or strengthening data around material origin and carbon reporting. It may also mean having more open conversations with customers about lead times, cost volatility and risk-sharing.

The wire and cable industry has always been international. What is changing is the speed at which geopolitical events can affect day-to-day business. The companies best placed to manage the next phase will be those that treat trade routes, tariffs, materials and regulation as connected risks, rather than isolated issues.

As this issue goes to print, the message is clear: resilience is no longer just about production. It is about supply chain intelligence, commercial agility and the ability to respond quickly to a world that continues to change.